The Atmospheric Science Team at Colorado State University (Go Rams!) recently released their June forecast for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Below is a summary of what they are predicting;
10 Named Storms
1 Major Hurricane (Category 3 or Higher)
Anywhere along the U.S. coast- 40%
East Coast – 22%
Gulf Coast- 23%
Meanwhile, NOAA offers the following predictions for 2014;
8-13 Named Storms
1-2 Major Hurricane (Category 3 or Higher)
NOAA does not forecast landfall probabilities.
At this point, most reliable forecasters are predicting a below-average 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season, as well as a below-average probability of a major hurricane making U.S. landfall. It is important to keep in mind that these early season forecasts often change. By the time we move into August and September, the forecast accuracy improves measurably. The various factors that aid or inhibit tropical activity (water temperature, trade-winds, etc.) are constantly evolving- so the forecast now is a best guess based upon current conditions and some climate signals that can be reasonably predictable over time (El Nino).
We’ve said it before, we’ll say it again- “All it takes is one.” The amount of predicted activity does not guarantee anything. Remember the hurricane predictions for 2012? Probably not, but we’ll never forget “Super Storm Sandy.”
For the record- the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season forecast called for; below average activity, 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. Hmmmmmm…. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?