Being that we are in the midst of daily severe thunderstorms bringing hail, tornadoes and flooding rains, one may think it’s a bit early to be talking about hurricane season. Well, think again!
Last week the Tropical Meteorology Project team at Colorado State University released their first hurricane activity and landfall probability report for 2015. In short, the report calls for:
- 7 Named Storms
- 3 Hurricanes
- 1 Major Hurricane
The various probabilities for at least one major (category 3 or greater) hurricane landfall in the U.S. are as follows:
- Entire U.S. coastline- 28%
- U.S. East Coast- 15%
- Gulf Coast of Florida- 15%
So at this point we are looking at a lackluster hurricane season. In fact, the good Dr.’s Philip Koltzbach and William Gray tell us in the first sentence of the report “, We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century.” You can view the entire report here- Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity- April 2015.
That being said, we must remember the mantra “All it Takes is One,” when thinking of hurricane season forecasts and predictions. Especially this early in the year….