The fourth named storm of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is here! Tropical storm Dolly formed this morning in the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche and is expected to come ashore tomorrow a few hundred miles south of the Tex/Mex border. It is unlikely that Dolly will reach hurricane status, but it will still bring plenty of heavy rain as well as the threat of flash flooding and landslides; particularly to the mountainous terrain south of the landfall area.
There will be a strong wave coming off the coast of Africa this weekend that also has the potential to become a tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center is giving a 30% chance of development in the next five days.
Typically, this month is the peak period for hurricanes, with the climatological climax of the season being around September 10th. However, a weak El Nino and cooler tropical Atlantic seem to be inhibiting cyclone genesis. In addition, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), is creating dry conditions that make storm development difficult. That being said, it’s not over yet folks! Hurricane season is a prime example of past performance NOT necessarily indicative of future results. As we all know, hurricanes are unpredictable and anything can (and does) happen…
